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Moody’s anticipates a 5-7% drop in paper consumption over the next 18 months, with a price war on the horizon.

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The financial analysis agency Moody’s has just delivered a prospective study for the paper and forest products markets for the next 12 to 18 months, and unsurprisingly, the forecasts are not very optimistic. The agency estimates that the market will face overproduction on the one hand, and a decrease in consumption on the other, these two factors combined leading to an estimated 5 to 7% drop in production, and strong price competition. The trend is summarized in one sentence: “Coronavirus will pressure demand and drive prices lower”. Although this study is rather focused on raw materials (paper pulp in particular), in my opinion it gives the trend of what is going to happen more generally in the printing industry, even if, within it, there will undoubtedly be counter-currents driven by digital printing and web-to-print, and an increased demand for paper products in packaging to promote the release .

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